Just two years ago (October 31, 2011), the seven billionth person was born. What number will the counter have reached in 20 years? And where is that person likely to be born?
In 2033, we will be sharing the earth with 8.6 billion people. Today, it’s still in China and India that most of the population lives, in 2033, Africa will be the most populated region. In the next 20 years, the population there will almost double, reaching 1.7 billion people. India and China, on the other hand, will only count 1.5 billion people. I expect that the 8.6 billionth person will be born in Nigeria.
Into what kind of family will this baby be born? Will it have siblings?
If this girl or boy is born in Nigeria, the 8.6 billionth human will be born into a large family. Since life expectancy is rising, this family will also probably include several generations. So this family will not only be made up of children and parents, but grandparents will also be included. The baby will have a few siblings, no longer five or seven, but rather one or two. A typical African family in 20 years will look more like a typical European family from 20 years ago. In Europe, families will be very different, much more diverse. An example: Various couples live together within a family unit, with several children from different partners, on top of that a widowed great aunt whose children have already left the house. So the traditional family with a mother, a father and two children will be rarer in Europe.
Is it not likely that there will be a lot more subsidized accommodation because the widowed great aunt has little money left and can no longer afford housing?
Poverty in old age will be a risk for our society in Europe. That will also apply to rich Germany, if we do not adjust our state and private social security systems in time. Otherwise the state will have to provide more support in twenty years, and funded housing will then be a necessary measure.
Will state pensions still exist?
Of course, the three-pillar government, company and private pension will remain as before. Just like a stool that has three legs to stay stable, retirement provision also needs these three pillars. A fourth pillar will be added: We will work a little longer. If we still feel fit for work or for a new job, we will still be able to work at the age of 70.
We are currently observing a trend for migration to big cities. People who are single live in the city center. Families reside in suburbs and nearby villages which are also becoming more urbanized. Will this trend continue?
This trend will still continue in the next few years. Families with children need more room. Accommodation in the city is relatively expensive, a house with a garden is not at all affordable. In 20 years, however, the demographic change will be noticeable; there will be fewer of us. This trend may then be reversed. There will be more space in cities again, so families and children could return to the cities. We can see the demographic change as an opportunity here.
Will there still be an increase of megacities?
No. A megacity is an area that is as big and complex as a small, independent country. Megacities will be more and more like countries, but that is not a new development.
Will there be a difference in the appearance of these cities?
London, Paris and Mexico City are already different from ordinary megacities. Even today, megacities exchange ideas across borders because they have similar problems. These cities need to be able to function independently from the national government; their issues are often unsolvable at a regional level. Learning is particularly interesting for megacities like Calcutta or Khartoum, which despite having a high number of inhabitants, still don’t have established structures like London or the German Ruhrgebiet.
Are any small or large countries already anticipating our future developments?
I don’t know any country that sets an example for solutions for the future in all areas. But there are some that have resolved individual problems in an exemplary manner. An international exchange is required here, as we offer at the Berlin Demography Forum. Governments and economists meet up there to exchange their best ideas with each other. An example: Every year, people in Denmark receive a sheet with information detailing the sources from which they will receive their pension in old age and what it will total. This is also called for by many in Germany, but for data protection reasons it would not be possible to collate the information. But we too want to inform citizens of what they can expect and whether they have made the right provisions.
How will we work? Everyone from home?
In 2033, we will be in the midst of change. The boundaries between professional and private life will become more fluid. This applies to the workplace as well as to working hours. Personal contact with colleagues matters more: Work becomes more of a place where colleagues meet up because without a personal exchange, ideas and solutions do not develop. That said, we are more likely to work when we feel like it and where we want to. Results and deadlines being met for projects are more important than being present at a particular location.
This flexibility also applies to work abroad. One-off deployments abroad are a thing of the past, international relocation will be more of a matter of course, and to the most varied locations on earth, at times only briefly and sometimes for longer periods.
The unemployment rate for immigrants shows a trend: The rate for immigrants from non-EU member states is twice as high as that for immigrants from EU member states. Doesn’t this trend go against the mobility you just mentioned and the integration associated with it?
That cannot be answered so generally. In the 50s, miners and nurses migrated from Korea to Germany. They integrated very quickly, faster than most Europeans. Korean and German-Korean families prove this. It really depends on the immigrants’ culture but also on the support programs in the country itself and the immigrants’ education which will be at a higher level in the next generations.
One final question about work: What new jobs will there be?
Exciting professions await us. I want to tell you three of them: nano-physicians, data diggers and bioengineers.
Nano-physicians will vaccinate and repair body tissues at a molecular level. The data diggers will look for data as raw material and then process it so that it is useful to service providers. Bioengineers will be able to replace lights in a house with luminous walls, for example. Walls will be covered in special types of algae or fungus which are luminous, and bioengineers will ensure that these plants grow properly, emit light and especially that they are not poisonous.
