Karsten Löffler, Allianz climate expert: “It is true that average temperatures have charted less of an increase over the past 15 years than in the second half of the 20th century. But that certainly doesn’t mean that we’ve been given the all-clear: quite the opposite.”
According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, temperatures are not rising as quickly as feared. Does this mean we have been given the all-clear?
Karsten Löffler: Sadly not. It is true that average temperatures have charted less of an increase over the past 15 years than in the second half of the 20th century. But that certainly doesn’t mean that we’ve been given the all-clear: quite the opposite.
The oceans have heated up more, the glaciers have retreated more and the past 20 years have seen the sea level rise almost twice as fast than over the last 100 years.
More than 800 scientists who worked on the report agree: more than half of the global warming that has been observed since 1951 is “extremely likely” to have been man-made, making it the dominant cause of the observed warming. Although average temperatures have not risen as quickly as feared over a short-term period, each of the last three decades was warmer than any other decade since 1850.
One conclusion drawn by the scientists, in particular, should serve as a wake-up call to us: even if we could stop the emission of human-induced greenhouse gases completely today, the average global temperature would continue to rise for a very long time. There is a considerable risk of damage that we are now powerless to repair. So taking serious measures today to counteract these trends is a must, not only from an ecological, but also from an economic perspective.
What conclusions has Allianz drawn from the report as an insurer and investor?
Karsten Löffler: Climate change is affecting our customers and is also affecting us, as an insurer. We are witnessing an increase in the number of claims linked to extreme weather events, such as torrential rain or storm tides. These include cases of physical loss or damage, interruptions of operations, illness, etc.
We are also impacted in our capacity as an investor, e.g. due to climate regulation and the costs for the industries affected. At the same time, we are exploiting the opportunities for our customers resulting from the expansion of renewable energy in the form of sustainable insurance products or forest protection.
Who should take action now? And how?
Karsten Löffler: The report provides a strong scientific basis for a real climate policy revolution. The report highlights two questions, in particular, as being key: how quickly can we slam the brakes on the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas, and how can we put a stop to deforestation?
Policymakers need to set out guidelines in order to achieve this: both as part of a global agreement that holds the main emitters, in particular, accountable, and at national level. Progressive companies and consumers should lead the way and reduce their carbon footprint. And in the poorer regions of the world, we need economically viable sustainable alternatives for development.
Further information on the IPCC:
What is the IPCC? The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is an international scientific body that assesses climate change. The organization was established in 1988 by the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The aim of the organization is to give a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts resulting from this change.
What is the key message? Although the new report is predicting more moderate (while still catastrophic) temperature increases compared to pre-industrial levels, expected sea level rises are higher than in the previous report and human influence estimated to be a key factor driving climate change with even greater certainty (nearing the 100%).
